Wednesday, November 03, 2004

When I'm awake, I'll rant more

In the meantime:

(Hat tip: dead. Click to supersize.)

Jim Lingren at The Volokh Conspiracy has as good a summary of Ohio as any of the media. Excerpt:
At 4am Wednesday, with 100% of the Ohio precincts reporting, Bush leads Ohio by 145,000 votes (51.1% to 48.4%)--very different from the effective tie in Florida in 2000 (just a few hundred votes difference then). People were so strongly expecting a razor thin result in Ohio that they haven't yet fully adjusted to the fact that it wasn't too close. Wins by more than 2% are completely ordinary and--absent special evidence that I am not privy to--not the sort of situation that should merit special scrutiny.

If I were Kerry, I would wait to see how many provisional ballots there are in Ohio (just to be reasonably cautious), assess whether Bush won any one of Iowa, Nevada, or New Mexico, and then make a quick decision. By the way, as I go to bed, Bush is leading by 3% in Nevada with 100% of the precincts reporting (and CNN just called Nevada for Bush).
3d UPDATE (5:25am): The Ohio website still has 10 counties outstanding, but Cuyahoga has come through with a plausible number of provisional ballots. The total is now 135,000 but is likely to stay low enough that a Kerry concession on Wednesday is likely--perhaps with the slightest of reservations on his part just in case the count comes out shockingly in his favor.
Last night the Donk spinners were hypothesizing huge numbers of provisional ballots.

And on my favorite topic, Fox news has a rather tepid article, but it's a start - Egg On Face of Exit Pollsters.

Update (8:44 AM): Thanks Guardian! - Clark County, Ohio moves toward the Republicans.

Update (9:32 AM): 1) MarKos' dirty dozen go down in flames, 2) Dan Rather in denial and cranky about the "blogging machine which the White House and the Bush-Cheney campaign has used for any number of purposes over their four years." Better type that one up, Captain Dan!

Update (10:45 AM): Dick Morris says EXIT-POLL OUTRAGE.

Update (10:54 AM): Fat Boy bugs out of Florida - Election So Smooth, Michael Moore Packs Up, Leaves. Actually it looks like he's headed to Ohio to try to stir up trouble.

Update (11:43): Kerry has called President Bush to concede. Speeches this afternoon.