Thursday, December 26, 2002

"worst holiday shopping season in more than three decades"
Bloomberg has alarming news:
New York, Dec. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Toys ``R'' Us Inc., Sears Roebuck & Co. and other retailers will offer after-Christmas discounts of as much as 80 percent, trying to salvage what may be the worst holiday shopping season in more than three decades.

Best Buy Co. is offering two DVDs for $25. Casual Corner will take 50 percent off already-discounted women's clothing. Other retailers, such as department stores Macy's and J.C. Penney Co. plan to open their doors early tomorrow for bargain hunters.

The promotions are aimed at enticing shoppers who curtailed spending in the weeks before Christmas because of concerns about the economy and their jobs. Retailers also need to boost sales to clear shelves for spring merchandise, even if the discounts erode profits, analysts said.

"Consumers have been showing signs of weakening and backing off some, and that just continues,'' said James Luke, who helps manage more than $10 billion at BB&T Asset Management and owns shares of retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
Sounds pretty scary, but what's the bottom-line?
Sales at stores open at least a year are forecast to rise 1.5 percent in the November-December period from a year earlier, the smallest increase since 1970, according to Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi Ltd., which tracks more than 80 retailers.
...
The average profit growth forecast for 137 retailers on Tuesday was 10.7 percent, according to a Thomson First Call survey of analysts.

That's less than the 11.5 percent average profit increase last year, and the 14.6 percent fourth-quarter forecast for Standard & Poor's 500 companies, First Call said. More analysts may revise estimates tomorrow, First Call analyst Ken Perkins said.
Only a 1.5% increase in sales from last year and the profit growth forecast is 10.7% as opposed to 11.5% last year! Stop, you're breaking my heart.

Stay tuned for the Democrat "collapsing economy" whine about this. It'll work the same way that reductions in the increase in spending on "social programs" are called "cuts in programs for people".