Don't show 'em the hole cards unless they pay
Stephen Pollard has an interesting theory in the Telegraph:

If there is a stick to be grasped, you can rely on the BBC to take hold of the wrong end of it. Reporting the latest round of UN manoeuvrings, the corporation's diplomatic correspondent tells us that the British ambassador is trying to find a "compromise" resolution that, by giving Saddam Hussein a final, final, final deadline (one should write "final" 18 times, given that there have already been 17 UN resolutions passed), will both put him to the test and draw France, Germany and Russia into the fold.

Quite the opposite. The purpose of a new resolution is not to issue more deadlines, but to present the so-called axis of weasels with a clear choice. If they are unable to bring themselves even to sign up to this final deadline, their sophistry will be exposed. Their motives will be seen to be based not on weapons inspectors and timing, but on a belief that no action should be taken against Saddam at all. The Prime Minister will thus be handed a strong argument (and some domestic political cover) for supporting American action without a further UN mandate.

Despite the coverage of the Bush-Blair relationship, President George W Bush has been concerned all along to preserve Mr Blair's political capital. Indeed, just before the anti-war march, the Prime Minister took a call from Condoleezza Rice, Mr Bush's National Security Adviser. The content of that call has not been revealed until now. The President, she told him, understood that, with most of the Labour Party and the majority of the country opposed to his policy, his position was precarious. But, she continued, he was far too important an ally to lose.

Nice, supportive words, for which Mr Blair was no doubt grateful. But they contained a twist. If, Miss Rice continued, the Prime Minister judged that he needed to soften his tone and, in particular, distance himself from Mr Bush, the President was relaxed. The reason, as Miss Rice put it, was that the bigger picture required that the Prime Minister preserve as much political capital as possible. Both Mr Blair and Miss Rice knew what the "bigger picture" was without it having to be spelt out. The bigger picture is Iran.

Follow the link for the Iran story, which is very important, but the winner for me is:

Well-connected advisers tell me that if, as now seems likely, the UN refuses to back action against terror, Mr Bush will announce a "temporary" suspension of America's membership, to be accompanied by an offer: if the UN gets its act together and carries out long-overdue reforms, America (and its money) will return. But if there is no reform, the temporary withdrawal will, de facto, become permanent.

Hot damn! Now we're talking.